The Waves of Church Growth...and Decline

 The driving force behind the First Wave of U.S. 'mainline' church growth was White European immigration, which peaked in the early 20th century. Many of these congregations were organized to minister in the languages of newly-arrived immigrants in their recently-established neighborhoods and small towns, especially 1850s-1920s. Then came restrictive immigration policies, the Great Depression, and WW2.

After WW2, the Second Wave of mainline church growth was directly attributable to the postwar Baby Boom, and White Flight to the suburbs. The economic prosperity and growth of these congregations was further fostered in the White church by the New Deal and the G.I. Bill.

As the original immigrant generations lost their languages of origin and other cultural connections; intermarried, became more mobile, and our country underwent significant socioeconomic shifts impacting employment, higher education affordability, home life, women's work and roles in society, and other upheavals, church life was impacted too.

The White churches who have grown most in the last generation (post-Baby Boom) have often done so as new church starts in high-affluence, new suburban residential developments. However, that wave is starting to subside as well. Economic status and ideology/ politics may be or have been popular starting grounds for new congregations, but they may not have any longer lasting power than residential proximity, race, ethnicity, and/ or language of origin.

(Of course, while all congregations say their primary purpose is to preach the Gospel and to bring people to Christ, and these days, that 'Everyone is Welcome,' there is almost always some other socioeconomic or demographic target group or intended audience/ sub-community identity whose bonds are strengthened as part of the mission of the congregation)

Where we are seeing growth in the mainline denominations are where we have seen growth in centuries before--in Racial/ Ethnic and New Immigrant communities. Meanwhile, our predominately White mainline denominations and their institutions were founded on socioeconomic realities that no longer exist, and they must necessarily change. Most likely, they will need to let go of divisions left over from European Reformation conflicts of centuries past and start sharing resources along with other cooperative efforts, more so now than ever.